On the Extinction Risk From Artificial Intelligence

Excerpt:  “The capabilities of artificial intelligence (AI) have accelerated to the point at which some experts are advocating that it be taken seriously as a credible threat to human existence. In this report, RAND researchers examined and seriously considered the threat of human extinction posed by artificial intelligence (AI). They used an exploratory scenario-based analysis to evaluate AI’s ability to create an extinction threat with three technologies: nuclear weapons, pathogens, and geoengineering. For each scenario, they assessed that it would be immensely challenging to create an extinction threat, although they could not rule out the possibility. They also concluded that an extinction threat would take a significant amount of time to take effect in each scenario, likely giving humans time to respond to and mitigate threats. From their analysis, they identified specific indicators of risk arising from each of the scenarios and follow with a series of recommendations to mitigate extinction risk from AI, including the need to study AI risks more broadly, to build human resilience, and to analyze other technologies that might increase risk. They conclude the study with a research agenda that will help reduce uncertainties and aid efforts to understand and mitigate extinction risk.”