Excerpt: “Planning for the defense of Ukraine in the absence of NATO security guarantees should begin now regardless of the timing of cease-fire negotiations. Moreover, to the extent possible, the terms and provisions of a cease-fire agreement should go beyond simply ending the war, and instead advance Ukraine’s future security. They could include measures for each side and/or international personnel under UN or Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) auspices to monitor cease-fire lines; they could also include limitations on force buildups near that armistice line. Cease-fire terms could further include some type of additional modest foreign military presence to train Ukrainians and act as tripwires against a resumption of conflict. Ukraine should not be left without outside security commitments or assistance, but in recognizing the reality that NATO membership is unlikely, Ukraine should aim for robust self-defense capability regardless of the broader region security architecture.”
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