Effects of Lower Launch Costs on Previous Estimates for Space-based, Boost-phase Missile Defense

Excerpt:  “This letter provides CBO’s estimates of how recent declines in the costs of launch services would change previous estimates of the costs to deploy a constellation of space-based interceptors (SBIs) designed to defeat one or two intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) fired at the United States by a regional adversary, such as North Korea. Those previous estimates appeared in studies published by CBO in 2004 and by the National Research Council (NRC) in 2012. Although launch costs are lower now, threats and U.S. policies have changed since those studies were published in ways that could increase the overall size and cost of an SBI constellation. By themselves, decreases in launch costs could reduce the previous estimates of the 20-year costs of various SBI constellations by 30 percent to 40 percent, CBO finds.”