As Fragile Kashmir Cease-fire Turns Three, Here’s How to Keep it Alive

Excerpt:  “In seeking to understand why some cease-fires fail and others endure, two features appear to be associated with success. The first is senior leader buy-in that lessening tensions in Kashmir is wise. Leaders often have doubts if they face serious power struggles internally or if they worry about perceptions of weakness especially in advance of elections. Leaders may also have preexisting ideological views about the other side that are slow to change. A second motivating feature is the presence of a heightened third-party threat. For the 2003 cease-fire, Pakistani and Indian leaders were willing to consider rapprochement, and the growing danger of terrorism in Pakistan appears to have shifted the views of the Pakistani Army regarding the urgency of that need. For the 2021 cease-fire, while evidence is still incomplete, there are signs that the Pakistani Army had been interested in conciliation with India under then army chief Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa, and this interest was reciprocated in the form of the Kashmir cease-fire only after the violent 2020 Sino-Indian clashes provided a powerful strategic incentive for Indian leaders to overcome their distrust of the Pakistan military.”